I’m noticing some interesting things about the presidential campaign. Driving through the blue collar neighborhood where I was raised, striking were the absence of political signs. It’s a fact I believe backs up one of the conclusions I’ve reached about this race.
A number of pundits continue to talk about a Tom Bradley effect. He’s the former Los Angeles mayor, defeated in his 1982 gubernatorial bid, despite leading in the polls. The loss has been attributed to white voters telling pollsters they’d vote for a black candidate, but with no real intention of doing so. The voters are said to have told pollsters what they thought they wanted to hear.
Many surmise Barack Obama could fall victim to such an Election Day surprise, but I see it quite differently. Continuing this conversation on race comes with the fair warning that the truth sometimes makes people very uncomfortable.
There are definitely white people who will never vote for a black man. I know, you’re shocked by this disclosure. While important, the mainstream media’s sensitivity filter is missing a rather significant factor.
Most people aren’t comfortable talking about politics. The racial voters I’ve described tend to be very vocal amongst fellow whites. They gently use a twenty-first century kind of intimidation on their neighbors. It’s the kind of thing that keeps some people in blue collar neighborhoods from displaying an Obama sign in their yard. Fear … not so much for their safety or their property (although I’m sure this is true in some cases) but, fear of peer pressure and being looked down on by their less tolerant neighbors.
I’ve suspected this effect for a while, but saw it first hand, when a white woman in her late-50s told me she was voting for Obama, but not to tell anyone. She was particularly worried about her (racist) neighbor. So, we’re left to wonder are the pollsters missing the point?
Some white voters are telling the real live person on the phone that they’re for McCain in what appears to be a complete reversal of the Bradley effect. They’re seemingly more comfortable siding with their vocal neighbors when talking to a pollster. It’s a reflex born out of experience. Are they though Obama voters come Election Day?
Add to the equation that most Republicans will privately acknowledge that John McCain has run a horrific campaign, plagued by blunders at every turn. The combination of a lackluster candidate and conditions on the ground has provided voters, even loyal Republicans, with little reason to vote for the so-called maverick.
West Virginia could well be Ground Zero for the peer pressure effect. Economic conditions in the borderline rust-belt state aren’t good. Fairly or unfairly, and few will admit this, West Virginia is perceived as a hillbilly state unlikely ever to be carried by a black man.
No one is paying much attention, but the polls are tightening in the land of the Wild and Wonderful. Could this be voters hopping off the derailing “Straight Talk Express?” Are things getting so bad for John McCain that he’s even losing the holdouts in West Virginia? Large groups of whom were telling the media just six months ago that they’d never vote for Barack Obama because he’s a “Moslam.”
My drive through my old neighborhood tells me they are. There aren’t many McCain signs … a clear sign of the lack of enthusiasm for the candidate and more so, voters’ disgust with the president’s handling of things. I’ve already explained the lack of Obama signs.
Americans are a basically fair people. Republicans will no doubt take the blame for messing up real bad. And, while I’m not suggesting America has buried all of its racial ills … I am suggesting Americans are practical. They love a winner and are willing to give a fresh face a chance.
The bad news for the GOP is that increasing numbers of them are disgusted by what they’ve seen out of Republicans. And, the Obama landslide no one thought possible, may wind up being the biggest surprise of 2008.
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Tags: politics, Election 2008, Barack Obama, John McCain, landslide, West Virginia, Tom Bradley, race, blue collar, white voters
