January is fast approaching.  Bob Ehrlich is on the clock.

Which office will Maryland’s former governor seek in 2010?  Conventional wisdom has him chasing a rematch with Governor O’Malley.  Why bother?

Are we to believe he didn’t learn anything from his four years as ruler of one-party Maryland?  Let’s hope he’s smarter than that.

Winning big in politics requires a certain level of boldness.  Ask Barack Obama.  He decided to face down long odds and challenge Hillary Clinton’s ready-made path to the throne.  She was to be the nation’s first woman president.  She was to use large sums of money to steamroll her way to the White House.  Something happened though.  It’s easy to forget, in this era of Obama, just what a long shot he was.

Martin O’Malley isn’t a particularly popular governor.  I’ve been asking around, and have yet to find one person, right or left, who doesn’t think Maryland Democrats played politics with slots.  Average people aren’t big on political games these days … as if I needed to tell you.

Bob Ehrlich was a fairly well-liked governor.  It goes without saying … how else could a Republican have won in Maryland?  Do the letters KKT mean anything to you?

So, why did he lose his 2006 re-election bid?  Two words: President Bush.  You know … the two words that threaten the continued viability of the Republican Party.

Defeating Martin O’Malley two years into donkey control of everything in Washington would probably be easy.  That’s right … easy.  Maryland’s former governor would in all likelihood be able to treat his successor to a lesson in turnabout as fair play.

And, Ehrlich would again be governor.  And, Democrats would still control the legislature.  Yawn.

Ehrlich isn’t kidding anyone.  He knows Sarah Palin is a dunce.  He’d like to get in on this new face of the Republican Party stuff.

To be clear … I’m not saying Ehrlich wants to be president.  He probably wouldn’t mind being someone’s running mate though.  Maryland may end up with just nine electoral votes in 2012, but they may well be important ones.

Ehrlich’s hair makes him a Republican version of John Edwards. Who’s that?  I’m having a hard time remembering … Edwards, you say.

Ehrlich is young, with a family, and as a white guy … is probably just the kind of change the GOP needs.

But, seriously.  How could Bob Ehrlich make a splash in time for 2012?  How, how, how? He could … watch his former lieutenant governor take the reigns as chairman of the Republican National Committee … and then … and then …

CHALLENGE THE MIGHTY BARBARA MIKULSKI.

She’ll have turned 74 by Election Day.  She’ll be up to her eyeballs in bailout double talk, having voted to give large sums of money to crooks on Wall Street and in Detroit.  She also figures to be a victim of two years of her party’s unfettered control of Washington.  And, two dozen years could be viewed as a long time for someone to spend in the Senate.

Can’t beat Barbara, you say?  Can’t beat her … if you don’t try.

SENATE RACES

It’s not looking good for Al Franken in Minnesota.  The statewide recount isn’t going particularly well for him.  Most believe it’s unlikely he’ll come up with the votes to overcome Norm Coleman’s lead.  Georgia isn’t likely to prove fruitful for the Dems either.  Polls generally give (R) Saxby Chambliss a four to six point lead over (D) Jim Martin in advance of Tuesday’s runoff.

Democrats figure to hold 56 seats when the 111th Congress convenes in January.  They get two votes closer to filibuster proof status by caucusing with Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman.  With Republicans in rough shape nationally, it shouldn’t be hard to find a couple of issue-based converts.  The last thing the GOP needs during the new president’s honeymoon period is to be seen as playing the role of obstructionist.

PRESIDENTIAL MAPS

Work continues on the new presidential maps.  I’m hoping to have them completely finished by year’s end, if not sooner.  A partial 2008 is up with updated vote totals.  I poured over Alabama’s write-ins.  I don’t recommend trying this at home.  There were plenty of scattered votes for wrestlers, porn stars, and dead people.  Ron Paul and Hillary Clinton did the best amongst the seriously living.

New maps for 1984, 1996, 2000, and 2004 are up in various stages of completion.

OBAMA TURNS TO NATIONAL SECURITY

Barack Obama’s national security team will take shape this week.  Hillary Clinton’s nomination for Secretary of State figures to steal all of the headlines.  Bob Gates will stay on as Defense Secretary.  Retired General Jim Jones is the president elect’s choice for National Security Adviser.  Susan Rice gets the post of UN Ambassador.

Pundits in the middle and on the right seem to like the choices, while the left isn’t crazy about their tone.  Obama’s core primary constituency fears a move toward a more status quo foreign policy, particularly with regards to Iraq.

RUSH TO CALM TENSIONS IN INDIA

The West is appealing to an understandably shaken India for calm in the wake of last week’s terrorist siege of Mumbai.  There’s plenty of finger-pointing in New Delhi following the ambush which killed nearly 200 people.  The Indian government says it’s raising security to a “war level” while signaling a Pakistani link to the deadly attacks, which have re-opened old wounds between the neighbors.

The Indian people are angry and minister level resignations in New Delhi aren’t going to make anyone happy.  Seven years removed from 9/11 and with London and Madrid still fresh in European minds, there’s an appreciation for the mood on the ground.  The West hopes early intervention can keep New Delhi from striking out at Pakistan as a way of satisfying the masses.  Any saber-rattling between the two nuclear-armed nations is sure to be of global concern.

NFL PLAYOFF PICTURE COMING INTO FOCUS

Four weeks remain in the NFL season.  Yesterday cleared up some stuff.

Starting with the NFC, It’s unlikely the Eagles, Saints, or Packers will make the playoffs.  Each of the three would have to walk the tightrope of perfection to have even the most remote chance of playing into 2009.  The Giants own the top spot in the NFC.  Carolina is likely to grab the two.  Arizona and Minnesota will be three-four or four-three.  That leaves Tampa Bay at five and Dallas, Atlanta, or Washington at six.

On the other side, Tennessee gets the one, while either Pittsburgh or Baltimore will claim the other bye.  Denver is a good bet for the three-hole.  I’ll say either the Jets or Dolphins grab the four, with the loser going home.  The Colts, who own a tie-breaker with the Steelers and Ravens, take five, while the Baltimore/Pittsburgh loser gets six.

The Giants never seem to do well in big spots against Minnesota.  I could see a desert loss in the championship game for the Vikings.  Imagine Kurt Warner trying for a second ring against Jeff Fisher.  The Titans squeak by Pittsburgh to get there.  But, remember I’m not exactly batting “a hundred” these days.  And, I do mean “a hundred.”

Jack is back as “24” returned to FOX last night with a prequel to its January revival.  It’s as good a time as any to explore the impact of a show some liberals have called “soft core porn” for neocons.

Irony is a wonderful thing.  There’s a great case to be made that Dennis Haysbert’s portrayal of President David Palmer played a significant role in putting the nation on the road to actually electing its first black commander-in-chief.

The show provided pop culture with its first realistic and believable black president.  Television and the movies had been full of flimsy examples, either rooted in comedy or simply the concept of a person of color holding the office.  The writers of “24” didn’t use David Palmer as a gimmick, but more of an afterthought.  His character was written as a competent president, who happened to be black.

Haysbert’s skills as an actor and the program’s strong script afforded millions of regular viewers, the skeptics included, the opportunity to become comfortable with, and find themselves rooting for, President Palmer as he stared down unspeakable horror.

The idea of a black president was given a credible platform.  What to most seemed far fetched as the decade began has become a reality as it comes to a close.

I’m not trying overstate the role of pop culture in recent history-making events, just acknowledge it.

As for “24” itself, I must admit to having had my doubts about its comeback.  Last night’s prequel erased many of them.  The season to begin in January will feature a woman as president as well as an examination of the government’s so-called interrogation techniques.  In other words, the writers continue to stay well ahead of the curve.

Learning from history is a must.  Historians agree that mistakes were made after the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor.  Many are able to understand the injustices done to Japanese-Americans because of the climate of fear that gripped the nation.  A half-century from now, a new group of historians will no doubt render the same judgment about the period which followed 9/11.  Between now and then, as we pick up the pieces and acknowledge both successes and failures, it’s good to have a smart program like “24” offering something for everyone’s consideration.

Republicans are about to go the way of the dinosaur.  Don’t laugh.

Many of them gleefully pointed to the Democrats’ end just a few short years ago.  Arrogance had engulfed the Democratic Party.  It was losing elections and more importantly converts.  What happened?

Voters gave Republicans their chance at the wheel … of course.  Like their colleagues across the aisle, Republicans managed to make a mess of things in short order.  And, then the scandals set in.

What are we to learn?  First of all, people were way too quick to bury the Dems.  Demographics have always favored them.  They have regions of strength nationally, not to mention great sway with the youth of America.  Young people continue to be born.  This is good for the Democrats.

They too will screw things up?  So, what gives?

For many years the Democratic Party has been a collection of minority interest groups.  Blacks have remained loyal to the brand.  Gays have nowhere else to go.  Labor unions and government workers vote their interests.  Hispanics have strayed somewhat, but for now are back with the Dems.  Add suburban whites and the actually voting young and Democrats win, easily.

Republicans on the other hand preside over the 7-10 split of parties.  Meet the Christian Right.  It’s not a fan of the circus and wants nothing to do with the big tent concept.  Try as they might, the Republican puppet masters have little chance of marrying the Christian Right to the party’s growing libertarian faction.  One could argue they’d have a better chance of marrying gays.

Remember, I’m writing about politics and where we’re going, not about my opinions on these issues.  They’re irrelevant anyway.

Gay marriage is coming.  Let the nation’s Civil Rights movement be your guide.  Those seeking to block the advancement of blacks had their victories in the 50s.  How’d that turn out for them?

Sarah Palin represents the half of the Republican Party that is locked in the past.  She has virtually no appeal to the nation’s young.  She’s anti-evolution and believes God is telling her what to do.

The Christian Right will insist on blocking gay marriage at every turn, while trumpeting its recent ballot box victories.  The party’s growing libertarian faction, demonstrated by Ron Paul’s incredible fundraising, couldn’t care less about these things.  These “young” people subscribe to individual responsibility and the “to each his own” mantra.  The two sides don’t go together.  They can’t coexist.

Sure, the Republicans face demographic problems, but it is this internal split which will prove fatal.

Particularly as it becomes obvious that the Republican Party as it’s currently constituted won’t be able to defeat a not-as-popular President Obama in 2012.  Failure will sew the seeds of distrust.  The Christian Right will blame the libertarian wing and vice versa.  The Christian Right will be exiled to a minority party status, not unlike Canada’s Bloc Quebecois.  It’s future goal will be perfecting the art of deal making in Congress.

A new party is destined to be born.  Being anchored by someone of celebrity status could certainly hasten its formation.  Jesse Ventura is the first name that comes to mind.  Sparks have already flown between him and the faithful.

Currently spotlighted is the Christian Right’s propensity to tell everyone what to do.  We’re only a couple of decades removed from the days of the Blue Laws, which didn’t allow for a lot of work on Sunday.

Forgotten is that Democrats also love to dictate what you can and can’t do.  And, the new one-party Washington will give them the chance.  Look for smoking and drinking bans, tougher seat belt laws, more helmet requirements, federal funding for red-light and speed cameras, and all sorts of big brother stuff.

For a new party to win, it will have to challenge this premise … that government knows best.  A guy like Jesse Ventura could begin stealing the young if he were to come out for the legalization of pot smoking, hookers, online poker, and the whole lot.  He could point to the hypocrisy of the Eliot Spitzers of the world, all the states that run lotteries.  The list of examples is never-ending.  He’d gain traction with the young in a New York minute.

Barack Obama is popular now.  It defies logic though to believe that any president will remain so in today’s media environment, particularly with the impossible plate of problems that awaits this one, or as John McCain might say “that one.”  It’s like facing an eight-run deficit in the bottom of the ninth … a couple of hits won’t do.

Plenty will have turned on President Obama by 2012.  They’d started running from President Bush by 2004 and President Clinton’s magic was gone by 1996.  I probably don’t have to remind you how the second terms for the first President Bush and President Carter went.

Republicans can’t win the White House again without finding a way to divorce young people from the Democrats.  And, at that point they’ll cease being your father’s Republicans.  The party of Reagan is dead.  President Bush killed it.  His war-mongering, big-spending ways did it in.  Now, it’s time to find new answers and more importantly new voices.

Good news Republicans.  John Boehner is staying on as your House leadership.  That should do the trick.

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